Saudi pipeline restarts, Brent drops below $100; Nasdaq gains 2.1%, gold slumps over 3%

Concerns over Middle Eastern supply temporarily eased last week. Saudi Arabia's East–West pipeline resumed operations on September 22, and Iran signaled that it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent settled below $100 a barrel for the first time since September 9. Risk appetite improved: the Nasdaq Composite set successive closing records and gained 2.1% for the week, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest daily net inflow since October 2025. Chinese President Xi Jinping made a state visit to the United States, with limited trade and economic results. Meanwhile, Fed officials maintained a hawkish tone and the dollar strengthened. At the start of this week, President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal, Brent moved back above $100, and spot gold fell more than 3% on Monday to below $4,200 an ounce.

Weekly overview: Supply concerns ease but rate increases remain in focus

Saudi Arabia's East–West pipeline restarted at reduced flow on September 22, with Yanbu exports expected to resume that day. Saudi Aramco aimed to restore throughput of around 4 million barrels per day, although a full recovery could take several weeks. Iranian officials said the same day that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States eased military pressure and lifted the blockade of its ports.

Following the Fed's September increase, several officials, including Cleveland Fed President Hammack and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson, signaled that further tightening could follow. Strong US PMI data on September 24 briefly pushed the dollar index above 101. As of Monday, September 28, CME FedWatch indicated that markets were pricing in roughly a 65% probability of another increase in October.

US–China relations: Xi visits the United States with limited trade results

Xi made a state visit to the United States on September 23–25 and met Trump at the White House. Reuters reported that the meeting focused on leader-level diplomacy, with no major trade or economic breakthrough. US Trade Representative Greer said the two sides agreed to exclude some goods from their trade dispute, including US agricultural products and medical devices exported to China and Chinese consumer and non-sensitive goods exported to the United States. Details were due on Monday. Both leaders said they would meet again at the APEC meeting in China in November and the G20 summit in Miami in December.

Oil: Brent rebounds after falling below $100

On September 21, hopes of renewed US–Iran talks weighed on oil. October WTI fell $4.52, or 4.5%, to settle at $95.78 a barrel. On September 22, the Saudi pipeline restart sent Brent down 2.64% to $97.69, its first close below $100 since September 9.

On Monday, September 28, Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, sending Brent back above $100 a barrel.

Gold: Declines accelerate and price breaks below $4,200 on Monday

On September 24, expectations of further Fed tightening weighed on gold. By 20:06 Beijing time, spot gold was down 0.6% at $4,261.55 an ounce. Losses accelerated on Monday: as of 16:58 Beijing time on September 28, spot gold was down 3.3% at $4,146.12, below $4,200, while gold futures fell 3.3% to $4,178.05. Precious metals weakened across the board, with spot silver down 5.1% at $61.02 an ounce and platinum down 3.2% at $1,725.01.

The main transmission mechanism was higher oil prices driven by Middle Eastern tensions, which raised inflation expectations, reinforced expectations of Fed rate increases, and lifted the dollar and Treasury yields. This reduced the appeal of non-interest-bearing gold. Safe-haven demand from geopolitical risk had not yet offset the pressure from higher rates.

Equities: Nasdaq sets records and gains 2.1% for the week

Lower oil prices and hopes of US–Iran talks boosted risk appetite on September 21, with technology stocks leading. The Nasdaq surged 2.26% to 27,122.09, its first record close since June 2. The S&P 500 rose 1.49% to 7,764.70 and the Dow gained 0.71% to 52,048.83. The Nasdaq set another record on September 22, closing at 27,244.28.

All three major indices rose on September 25: the S&P 500 gained 0.5% to 7,743.41, the Dow rose 0.9% to 51,828.62, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.5% to 27,068.72. Compared with the September 18 close, weekly gains were 1.2% for the S&P 500, 2.1% for the Nasdaq and 0.3% for the Dow.

Cryptocurrencies: Strong return of ETF inflows

Bitcoin reached around $87,400 intraday on September 21, its highest since January. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $999 million in net inflows that day, the largest daily amount since October 2025, including about $381 million into BlackRock's IBIT. According to SoSoValue, by September 25 spot Bitcoin ETFs had recorded six consecutive trading days of net inflows totaling around $2.84 billion. Year-to-date flows turned from net outflows of about $5.8 billion on July 13 to net inflows of around $800 million. Bitcoin traded near $85,000 that day.

On Monday, Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal, rising oil prices and stronger rate-increase expectations pushed Bitcoin back to around $82,958 and Ether to about $2,663.

Events to watch this week (Beijing time)

Risk notice: This material is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Financial markets involve risk, and past performance does not indicate future results.