Preview | US October CPI due tonight: monthly gain expected to slow to 0.3%, with no year-on-year figures for headline or core this time

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 21:30 Beijing time tonight. The November CPI is due on December 10, after the Federal Reserve's December 8-9 policy meeting, which makes tonight's report the last CPI report before that meeting. September CPI rose 0.6% month on month and 3.7% year on year, with both gains larger than in August. According to economist surveys by Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal, October CPI is expected to rise 0.3% on the month and core CPI 0.2%. Because of the 2025 US federal government shutdown, the BLS did not publish CPI data for October 2025, and it has said it will not publish October 2026 12-month changes for indexes missing data for that month, so this report carries no year-on-year figures for headline or core CPI. According to CME FedWatch, as of November 9, markets saw about an 85% chance of a Fed rate hike in December.

Previous report: September CPI up 0.6% on the month, with gasoline accounting for more than half of the increase

The BLS reported on October 14 that September CPI rose 0.6% month on month, seasonally adjusted, the largest monthly gain since April, after 0.4% in August; it rose 3.7% year on year, not seasonally adjusted, versus 3.4% in August. The gasoline index rose 9.1% in the month and accounted for more than half of the monthly increase in the overall index; the energy index rose 5.2% on the month, compared with 2.1% in August. Over the past 12 months, the energy index is up 20.4%, with gasoline up 34.2%.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month, the same pace as in August, and 2.6% year on year. The shelter index rose 0.4% on the month, compared with 0.3% in August; the food index was unchanged on the month and rose 2.5% year on year.

Market expectations: monthly gain to slow, year-on-year data for headline and core missing

According to the median of the Bloomberg economist survey released on November 8, October CPI is expected to rise 0.3% month on month and core CPI 0.2%. The Wall Street Journal survey published by Dow Jones Newswires on November 9 shows the same results, with 24 economists taking part for each measure. Bloomberg Economics expects headline and core to rise 0.25% and 0.24% on the month, respectively, and expects slower increases in prices for used cars and consumer electronics and in owners' equivalent rent.

The BLS did not collect CPI data from October 1 through November 12, 2025, and did not issue an October 2025 CPI report. In its FAQ on the shutdown's impact, the BLS said it will not publish 12-month changes for October 2026 for indexes where October 2025 data are not available, so neither headline nor core CPI has a year-on-year figure this time. Four economists in the Wall Street Journal survey made their own estimates of the annual rate, with median figures of 3.9% for headline and 2.7% for core.

Another inflation reading this week is the October Producer Price Index (PPI), due at 21:30 Beijing time on November 13. BLS data show September PPI rose 1.3% month on month and 6.3% year on year; according to the Wall Street Journal survey, October PPI is expected to rise 0.4% month on month and 6.6% year on year.

Rate pricing: about 85% odds of a December hike

After raising rates by 25 basis points on September 16 (the early hours of September 17 Beijing time), the Fed held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28 (the early hours of October 29 Beijing time) by a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack favoring a 25-basis-point hike. The BLS reported on November 6 that nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. According to Reuters, as of that afternoon US Eastern time, CME FedWatch showed market pricing for a Fed hike of at least 25 basis points in December moving back up to near 80%; the 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.52% and the 10-year to 4.85%.

According to financial news outlet Investopedia on November 9, citing CME FedWatch, markets see about an 85% chance that the Fed will raise rates at its December meeting. The Fed will announce its December decision at 03:00 Beijing time on December 10, together with its Summary of Economic Projections; ahead of that, the November jobs report is due on December 4.

Previous release: September CPI beats expectations, S&P 500 posts its worst day since July

CPI affects Treasury yields and the US dollar mainly through rate-hike expectations, with the effect in turn feeding through to gold and equities. When September CPI was released on October 14, according to Reuters, headline year-on-year, core month-on-month and core year-on-year readings were all above economists' expectations of 3.6%, 0.2% and 2.5%, respectively. According to the Associated Press, the 10-year Treasury yield briefly climbed above 5.32% after the release before giving back much of the gain; according to the daily yield curve data published by the US Treasury, the 2-year yield was 4.82% that day, versus 4.79% the day before, and the 10-year yield was 5.19%, versus 5.21%.

According to the Associated Press, citing CME Group data, the odds traders put on a Fed hike in October rose to nearly 35% from 22% the previous day; according to Reuters, the US dollar index rose to an 18-month high that day, and spot gold fell 1.7% to $4,086.06 an ounce as of 9:03 a.m. US Eastern time. In US equities, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 7,718.94 that day, its worst day since July; the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.9% to 26,692.87, and the Dow slipped 0.1%. The Fed then held rates steady at its October meeting.

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